Statistical Models for Spot Air Quality Forecasts (O3 and PM10) in British Columbia
نویسندگان
چکیده
1. Abstract Multiple linear regression models were developed for spot forecasts of 1-hour ozone (O3) and 24-hour particulate matter with diameter less than 10um (PM10) at 28 sites in the interior British Columbia, Lower Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island of British Columbia. The models were trained based on datasets from 2000 to 2004 at each site including meteorological variables from Scribe and XScribe matrices from Canadian Meteorological Centre, air quality variables (antecedent O3 and PM10) from the Greater Vancouver Regional District air quality monitoring network, and seasonal variable (sine function of Julian day). Seventeen models over the next 48 hours (0-h, 3-h, 6-h, ..., 48-h) for O3 and PM10 at each of the 28 sites were implemented for air quality forecasts (O3 and PM10) covering 16 regions in British Columbia. Cross-validation showed that the average bias, MAE, and RMSE were -0.018(ppb), 5.590(ppb), and 7.246(ppb) for O3 model, and -0.001(ug/m), 2.988(ug/m), and 4.051(ug/m) for PM10 model. The models are currently used operationally in the Pacific and Yukon Region of Environment Canada. The official forecast (FLCN40 CWVR) is issued to the public daily by the Pacific Storm Prediction Centre located in Vancouver, British Columbia.
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